Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESIUSD) Live Data, Formula & Analysis

Macro Economic Definition & Formula

The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESIUSD) measures whether macroeconomic data releases are beating (>0) or missing (<0) consensus Wall Street expectations.

Formula: Weighted historical sum of economic data surprises relative to Bloomberg/Dow Jones consensus surveys

Key Indicator Specifications Table

Indicator ParameterValue / Specification
Indicator NameCiti Economic Surprise Index
Ticker SymbolCESIUSD
Normal Baseline Range-30.0 - +30.0
Unit of MeasureIndex Points
Authoritative SourceCitigroup Research

Authoritative Data Source Citation

Positive readings indicate economic releases are exceeding analyst projections, reinforcing economic growth resilience. Negative readings indicate unexpected data misses.

Source: Citigroup Research (https://www.citigroup.com)

Market Impact & Historical Context

Surprise index turning up from negative extremes (<-30) signals economic bottoming and cyclical stock outperformance.

Oscillates in multi-month cycles as analysts adjust forecasts to reality.

macroCESIUSD

Citi Economic Surprise Index

Latest Value110.5
+2.1%

The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESIUSD) measures whether macroeconomic data releases are beating (>0) or missing (<0) consensus Wall Street expectations.

NORMAL BASELINE RANGE-30.0 - +30.0
UNIT OF MEASUREIndex Points
AUTHORITATIVE DATA SOURCECitigroup Research

Historical Trend & Macro Shading

Formula & Calculation Mechanism

Weighted historical sum of economic data surprises relative to Bloomberg/Dow Jones consensus surveys

Positive readings indicate economic releases are exceeding analyst projections, reinforcing economic growth resilience. Negative readings indicate unexpected data misses.

Market Impact on US Equities & S&P 500

Surprise index turning up from negative extremes (<-30) signals economic bottoming and cyclical stock outperformance.

Historical Precedents & Bull/Bear Regimes

Oscillates in multi-month cycles as analysts adjust forecasts to reality.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q:What does a positive Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESIUSD) mean?

It means macroeconomic data releases (such as GDP, retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, and ISM PMIs) are generally beating consensus Wall Street estimates, reflecting positive economic momentum.

Q:How do traders use the Citi Economic Surprise Index?

Traders use CESI as a sentiment mean-reversion indicator: extreme negative readings often precede upward growth surprises and equity rallies, while extreme highs warn of impending growth moderation.

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