Formula & Calculation Mechanism
When the Fed expands balance sheet assets or when cash drains out of the TGA and Reverse Repo back into commercial bank reserves, financial net liquidity increases, boosting equity valuation multiples.
Market Impact on US Equities & S&P 500
Correlates over 85% with medium-term S&P 500 index trends. Rising net liquidity expands Forward P/E multiples; contracting net liquidity leads to market pullbacks.
Historical Precedents & Bull/Bear Regimes
During 2020-2021 QE, Fed Net Liquidity surged past $6.5T, driving the S&P 500 bull market. In 2022 QT, liquidity contraction triggered a 25% equity drawdown.