Formula & Calculation Mechanism
In normal markets, term structure is in Contango (VIX9D < VIX, ratio < 1.0). In sudden panics, VIX9D surges above VIX into Backwardation (ratio > 1.0).
Market Impact on US Equities & S&P 500
Backwardation (ratio > 1.0) signals immediate hedging panic, frequently coinciding with short-term market bottoms.
Historical Precedents & Bull/Bear Regimes
During August 2024 volatility spike, VIX9D / VIX ratio surged past 1.35, signaling extreme short-term capitulation.